by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As of the middle of September 2016 I am calling the election for Donald Trump. You can give me all the rational explanations how this election is just like 2012, but I’m not buying. This campaign is unlike any I’ve ever experience or read about in America history. When I say Trump will win, I am saying I have run the scenario in my head and the most likely one is a Trump victory. Here are the reasons.

1. The callow press and Vichy Republicans
These two major democratic institutions have failed us in an epic manner. The press is so busy running around talking about Trump, that they are completely missing the point. A few people, like Keith Overman are beginning to articulate a cold, caculated case against Trump.

But I believe it is too late. He is preaching to the choir (me and people like me) and, really, all of this is about undecided voters in the crucial swing, or “purple” states. Given the cacophony of Trump related information and the false narrative and false equivalency the press is so obsessed with it is possible Trump will win through sheer force of will. The press may be liberal, but none of them seem willing to take a stand now when it matters. Add to this the normalization of hatemongering and fear on the part of Trump and you have the makings of a Brexit-sized shock.

Additionally, this does not even begin to address the issue of the Vichy Republicans. Not one major Republican with any clout has been willing to give America that “Have you no sense of decency” moment that is so badly needed. The Vichy Republicans are complicit in any Trump victory and should he win they will be complicit in hateful, dark era in American history that will surely follow.

2. Young people are falling into the Brexit trap
From what I’ve been able to gather from polls, a big percent, I think it’s about 30%, of youth voters want to vote for a 3rd party as some form of protest. They believe Clinton is a shoe in, and as such they believe they can safely vote for a 3rd party with no effect.

In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that when the post mortem is done of a Trump victory, this strategic macro misjudgement will be the thing that most people in the media will blame. We’ll see any number of interviews with groups of young people who will be in a daze that their vote did, in fact, matter.

3. The “basket of deplorables”
It is indicative of the double standards the press has between Clinton and Trump that he can insult large swaths of normal Americans, but if Clinton points out the obvious she loses votes. The number of otherwise non-deplorable Americans who now seem to think it’s cool to proudly affirm their affiliation with individuals who, are, in fact deplorable is apparently so large that everyone has missed the point of Clinton’s comment.

So there is a risk that low-information voters won’t even know the context of her comment. They will just assume she was talking about them because they were thinking about voting for Trump and that will be the thing that pushes them over the edge. People are so angry and wrapped up in their hatred of Clinton that they totally miss what she was trying to say. This is another aspect of this election cycle that leads me to believe Trump will win.

4. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate.
Clinton is a weak, weak candidate. She has failed to connect with voters and Trump has monopolized the conversation to such an extent that he has sucked out all the air. So, she can spend all the money she wants, Trump is a reality TV star and so he knows how to work the crowd. Think of him as kinda of a negative Bill Clinton. If Bill Clinton was our first “black gay woman president,” Trump is the last gasp of how a large portion of America perceives itself. Trump takes traditional notions of what it means to be American and inverts them. He flips the script, as they say, dividing us into our individual groups. Instead of being inclusive and progressive, he is divisive and reactionary.

So, having explained why I thin Trump will win, let’s discuss what to do to in Trump’s America. The first step is maybe have some sort of ritual cleansing exercise. Maybe call up old friends and get throw up drunk. Get high for the first time. Do something, anything, to take your mind off of this epic disaster for a few days.

Once that’s done, we all need to take a deep breath and prioritize. As in any disaster situation, you have to do some triage. The first issue is how much damage, in real terms, can a deranged short fingered vulgarian do on his own? I have see a few places already where people have begun to contemplate how powerful the Constitution’s “checks and balances” will be in mitigating and controlling Trump in office.

Sad to say, the presidency has accrued enormous power in the modern world, to such an extent that with the not-so-tacit approval of the Vichy Republicans, Trump will be able to run roughshod over a lot of established American ideals. His election will be the greatest counter-revolution since the Civil War. The most frightening thing is the last major conservative revolution, the Reagan Revolution of 1980-81, was at its core a positive one. Jimmy Carter had symbolized a nadir in American power both at home and abroad and Reagan make America feel pride again. And yet he did not frame it in scary, race baiting terms. Reagan promised it would be “morning again” in America. He believed in America exceptionalism, with America being a shiny “city on the hill.”

Trump’s vision for America, in contrast, is a dark, scary place, fit for Greek hades. I have quipped more than once that Trump’s America is like the dark alternative universe in Back To The Future 2. You know the one, the one where Marty McFly’s antagonist uses his knowledge of sporting events to accrue vast wealth. Or, to put in a more quaint fashion, Trump’s America is Pottersville from It’s A Wonderful Life. But unfortunately, this will not be fiction but a reality that we wake up to every day.

It is highly unlikely that any Vichy Republican House would impeach Trump, no matter how heinous his breach of traditional American values. So, we’re stuck with him for at least two years. It doesn’t take too much to imagine Trump acquiescing to a huge land grab on the part of Russia which, in turn, might make North Korea emboldened. America would then face two regional wars with a commander-in-chief who was a Russian stooge or patsy at best and a quisling at worst.

So this brings up the issue of what can right minded citizens, people who believe in traditional American values of inclusiveness and freedom do in this situation. At this point, my only suggestion is to become engaged. The Trump fever dream may, or may not break after a few months of disastrous administration on his part. Not to compare Trump to Hitler, but I must note that Hitler was popular with most Germans for much of his rule. So, if Trump can tap into some sort of black void in the American psyche, there are no assurances Trump will be anywhere near as unpopular as my impeachment scenario might suggest.

The book that all of us need to study is Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America. In the book, we are shown an alternative universe where Charles Lindbergh won the 1940 election and the America Firsters’ agenda of appeasement of the Nazis was enacted. While the book is obviously fantastical, I believe we can glean some important lessons about how a president sets the tone of his or her era.

I must note, however, that the law of unintended consquences may cause things to break against Trump and his followers. One possible scenario has many center-Left celebrities running — and winning — after the initial shock and awe of a Trump victory wears off. My wish is that someone like Jon Stewart would run for office. Only someone like Jon Stewart might be able to articulate what many people were thinking as it grows ever more apparent that the American electorate had made the worst decision since at least Prohibition.

The path of history may bend towards justice, but it also does not go in a straight line. Should Trump win, America is in for a chaotic period. But I would like to think that ultimately the Trump fever dream will break and things will snap back to normal.

In the meantime, we’re in for interesting times.

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The time for games is over. Trump could very well win this one and we have to start thinking about what happens next. We have to address some fundamental issues that can no longer be ignored.